Frequently Asked Questions

Ok, no one has yet asked any of these questions, but they might.

1) What is this blog for?

Good question. Once upon a time I was in a casino and was considering plunking down some money in the sportsbook on baseball games. I knew enough about baseball to make a reasonable guess about which teams would be likely to win, but since all of the casino favorites paid out less than a dollar for each dollar wagered, I wasn't sure which bets were smart to make. Even if I think the Yankees will beat Royals, is it wise to make a bet that only pays a few dimes on each dollar?

I thought to myself, man, you'd need a computer and lots of statistics to answer that question correctly. Then, I realized, "Hey, I HAVE a computer! And statistics!". So, now I'm answering that question.

The purpose of this blog is to see whether my baseball analysis program actually recommends bets that are profitable in a semi-public forum. I post the bets and the results each day.

2) If your baseball program really works, why are you only making pretend bets?

Good question. As near as I can tell, there's no way to legally place sports bets in California, which is where I live. So, this is the next best thing for now.

3) How does your program work?

Good question. It uses a big database of baseball statistics to analyze each day's games. Then, it compares its results to the odds being offered by an online casino. If the casino is offering odds better than what my program thinks would be fair and even odds, then we have a recommended bet.

The actual algorithm used to analyze each game is proprietary. I use some stock methods of player analysis (like OPS) and some other ones that I invented.

4) Where do you get your data from?

Good question. I paid for some of it and scrape other bits of it from various websites. Then, I stitch it all together and cram it into my database.

5) What do the odds numbers mean?

Very good question. Casinos speak a strange language.

When the casinos offer odds that are positive numbers, it means that this bet pays more than a dollar for each dollar bet. This typically indicates that you're betting on the underdog in the matchup. To find the payout, you multiple the odds by your bet amount. For example, odds of 1.5 mean that for each dollar you bet, if you win, you'll receive $1.50.

When you see a negative number, those bets don't pay as well. This typically means that you're betting on the favorite in the matchup. To find the payout, you divide your bet by the absolute value of the odds amount. For example, odds of -2.0 mean that for each dollar you bet, if you win, you'll receive 50 cents.

6) Why does your program always seem to bet on the underdogs?

Good question. That's just how it has worked out. It sure would save me a lot of heartburn to make these pretend bets on the favorites, but my software spots more market inefficiencies on the underdog side of the bet.

The casinos choose these odds amounts to try and get even amounts of bets on both sides of the match-up. Since, psychologically speaking, I think most people want to bet on a winner, the casinos take that into account and make the favorites bet a little less lucrative and the underdog bets a little more so.

7) In your daily "Recommended Bet" report, what do the names in parentheses mean?

Good question. Those are the names of the players that my program thinks will be the starting pitchers. If that turns out to be incorrect, I cancel the bet regardless of whether it was a winner or loser.

8) Why are some recommended bets bigger than others?

Good question. The bigger the market inefficiency my program spots, the bigger the bet it will recommend. Theoretically, the big bets are the most profitable ones.

9) If I bet on your recommended games, should I bet the recommended amount?

Good question. Your average bet size should be proportional to the amount of money you're willing to lose. It should be about 2 or 3% of your total stake. Since my bankroll started at $200, my average bets started at around $4 or $5.

As my bankroll goes up or down, I'll vary my average bet size accordingly. So, compare your bankroll to mine, and modify the individual bet sizes to be in line with your bankroll.

10) Is this baby guaranteed to win?

Very good question. Hell no. It could have a bunch of losing days in a row, completely decimating any bankroll. Gambling is a gamble.

11) Why don't the odds I see at an online casino match the ones you list?

Good question. Online odds are constantly moving in response to bets. The odds that you'll see listed here represent the odds offered by Bodog.com at the moment when I run my report. Generally, the odds at major casinos don't move around a ton, but some movement is to be expected.